Has a job opportunity ever felt like a gamble? Maybe the risk is worth the reward? Working with actuaries for 20 years has made me appreciate their enlightened risk appetite – risk-taking is often seen as undesirable or unwise and at the very least, deserving of a lot of thought.

But there are elements of choice and risk in most areas of life, from risking your finances due to an uncertain bet to wondering whether you’re making the right choice when picking your relationship options. Some people will always say, ‘play it safe’. But what if the safe option isn’t always the answer?

Nate Silver, a renowned statistician, says it might be worth taking the bet after speaking on the Working on It podcast.

Silver brought up the idea of Expected Value (EV), which is a concept from the world of poker that is surprisingly fitting when it comes to our careers.

Here is a good example of what Silver means: Imagine you receive a job offer which would pay you double however, there is a 10 per cent chance you will get fired.

That sounds pretty risky, right?

However, in terms of EV, 90 per cent of the time, you will be better off choosing this route. Because, even if it doesn’t work out, you will be back in the job market with even more experience than before (this is often my argument for joining start-up opportunities or investment banking).

As an actuary, your job is to evaluate risks in insurance, but while you are super careful with the risks you face every day in your job, are you as careful about the risks in your own career?

Silver explained: “I think in general, people err way too much on the side of caution. If you walk down a hallway that has more open doors, it’s more likely that one of the doors will happen to have something interesting going on. Building opportunity tends to snowball positively on itself. You meet people who introduce you to other people, you develop skills that can be replicated in the future.”

To do this, you need to stay ‘intellectually curious’ and avoid being too risk-averse.

The expert explained that as people, we tend to play it too safe, and because of that, many of us stick to the conventional choices that we’ve seen others make.

Instead of being open to calculated risks, we are missing the window of opportunity when real growth is possible. Growth for our personal lives and our careers.

Many professionals are too worried about the short-term consequences to take the risk, but if the long-term expected value of that opportunity is positive, maybe it’s time to step up and try it out.

Every career involves choices, which then provides a risk.

Instead of shying away from a risk that appears on the surface as far-fetched, why not weigh it up using EV and think of the long-term value it could present to you and your future job?

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